Fire In The Sky long campaign game setup trial run#1. After reading and rereading the rules at least 5 times, I have decided to run a trial game to wrap my head around it.
The most difficult part is to understand the movement mechanics and the strategy behind the carrier and bombardment task forces.
Since the setups for the long and short campaign game were provided, I decide to try and recreate the moves to obtain the short game setup from the long game setup.
Fire in the Sky is an asymmetric game where the Japs start with almost all units on board while the US forces enter the war gradually and finally build up to an unstoppable force.
South East Asia. The Japs have to take Manila and Singapore.
Pearl Harbor. To attack or not to attack, that is the question. The game provides an overwhelming bonus to the Japs’ first strike that it makes sense to strike… or does it?
Australia, the lynchpin of the Jap offensive in their attempt to force the Allies to sue for peace.
Aftermath of the Pearl Harbor attack. Plenty of Battleship damage and sunkage, which probably meant it’s a good 1st turn move… or does it? Can’t make up my mind on this.
Manila invasion goes according to plan. Epic failz on the Singapore blitz. According to rule book, this is probably an unrecoverable setback.
Plenty of US units sunk in Pearl Harbor, however Japs’ singapore invasion force is also nursing some heavy bruising’ at home. Contrary to history, Repulse and Prince of Wales prevailed!
Notes: after running through a simulated 1st turn game, it is still a VERY difficult game to wrap my head around. It is difficult to ascertain the naval and air assets to commit to a particular battle based on the combat modifier tables. It is also still difficult to determine the strategic value of different naval and air assets positioning… Perhaps a few more simulated turns in the future…
2011 was a bad year for investments. Stock market is trading sideways for most of the year, let’s see how we did.
Total returns for KLCI is at 82%, similiar to last year while my returns have dropped from last year’s 67% to this year’s 53%. Depressing.
Stock allocation did not change much at 69% Blue Chip, 10% REITS and 21% Small Cap/Speculative.
Public Bank is maintaining it’s stock price while returning an additional 6% dividends for the year. YTL was sold because of it’s poor dividends and AJI was added for it’s growth potential into India. AJI also returns a respectable 4% dividends for the year.
AL AQAR returned 7% Dividend for the year on top of a few percent of capital gains. It may not be an AXIS but still better than everything else in this environment.
HAIO, ANALABS and CENBOND was sold to realise their gains.
MEGB suffered a severe hammering due to lower student intake from a government policy change regarding student loans. However dividends remain strong at 6.8%. I still believe there’s a good future for MEGB as demand for nurses should go up as the world ages. I will keep a close eye on this stock as there are too many factors driving the stock downwards, including the CEO’s health.
XDL suffered through the year as continuous string of bad news came out of China. First there was the reverse take over scandal of Chinese companies on US stock exchange, and then rumours of economic hard landing eminent in China. Dividends are quite disappointing at 3%. Yes I know, better than FD but poor compared to REITS. Only piece of good news came only in 2012 when it was announced that another company is contemplating buying XDL. This stock is speculative all the way.
NOTION was added again for the rumours of interest from KKR private equity firm. The deal however fell through, perhaps due to management’s belief that it is worth more than the money offered. After the earthquake in Japan, it announced that Nikon wants to outsource their processes to NOTION, which is a positive development. However, late in the year it was hit by floods in Thailand and the stock again fell. Given the circumstances, it is still worth keeping the stock and see 2012’s results before deciding whether to keep it or not.
One of the themes of 2011 is the amount of mergers and acquisitions happening, like MAMEE, PLUS. Some of the mutual funds are doing really well because of it, and it rather makes my portfolio look embarassing, despite the overall KLCI barely moving. This M&A theme is moving well into 2012 with PROTON and KFC. However, I might not play on this theme as market insiders will outplay any retail investors.
REITS however look promising and the limited capital gains is keeping investors on the sidelines despite the good dividends. If the situation in Europe persists, it might be worth investing in more REITS as I wait it out. If the situation changes only I will change to cash and start buying more beaten down stocks.
I have written this a year ago to a friend and since I’m planning to write something for 2011, thought I’ll dig up this one and post it. Unfortunately the excel values have been blanked out to protect myself. I am however posting the percentages for everyone’s perusal:
I have attached here my portfolio, share my rationale for my purchases and perhaps thoughts for the immediate future.
Public Bank has been doing well as the back bone of my portfolio, forms about 50% of total equities and is returning ~65%. Not even rumours of Teh Hong Peow’s health can drag this stock down.
Hai-o is doing well as a growth stock for the moment, returning 78% although the growth seems to have stagnated for a year.
YTL is a blue chip that is holding its own, but the dividends are not growing as much as I like.
CENBOND and ANALABS are small caps that according to the Stock Market Performance Guide quite reliable dividends generators. Growth is moderate.
Al Aqar Reits was purchased towards mid of last year as I felt the Malaysian stocks are getting expansive in their evaluation. It is also defensive in nature due to their dividends policy. My hope is that it will have capital gains like Axis Reits.
XDL is a china stock which has an ok dividends but the market is shunning it like crazy. Still too early to judge whether there will be capital growth, it is one of my more speculative investments.
MEGB is a play on Education stock, but it is still speculative in nature when compared to SEGI or HELP.