Fire In The Sky long campaign game setup trial run#1. After reading and rereading the rules at least 5 times, I have decided to run a trial game to wrap my head around it.
The most difficult part is to understand the movement mechanics and the strategy behind the carrier and bombardment task forces.
Since the setups for the long and short campaign game were provided, I decide to try and recreate the moves to obtain the short game setup from the long game setup.
Fire in the Sky is an asymmetric game where the Japs start with almost all units on board while the US forces enter the war gradually and finally build up to an unstoppable force.
South East Asia. The Japs have to take Manila and Singapore.
Pearl Harbor. To attack or not to attack, that is the question. The game provides an overwhelming bonus to the Japs’ first strike that it makes sense to strike… or does it?
Australia, the lynchpin of the Jap offensive in their attempt to force the Allies to sue for peace.
Aftermath of the Pearl Harbor attack. Plenty of Battleship damage and sunkage, which probably meant it’s a good 1st turn move… or does it? Can’t make up my mind on this.
Manila invasion goes according to plan. Epic failz on the Singapore blitz. According to rule book, this is probably an unrecoverable setback.
Plenty of US units sunk in Pearl Harbor, however Japs’ singapore invasion force is also nursing some heavy bruising’ at home. Contrary to history, Repulse and Prince of Wales prevailed!
Notes: after running through a simulated 1st turn game, it is still a VERY difficult game to wrap my head around. It is difficult to ascertain the naval and air assets to commit to a particular battle based on the combat modifier tables. It is also still difficult to determine the strategic value of different naval and air assets positioning… Perhaps a few more simulated turns in the future…
2011 was a bad year for investments. Stock market is trading sideways for most of the year, let’s see how we did.
Total returns for KLCI is at 82%, similiar to last year while my returns have dropped from last year’s 67% to this year’s 53%. Depressing.
Stock allocation did not change much at 69% Blue Chip, 10% REITS and 21% Small Cap/Speculative.
Public Bank is maintaining it’s stock price while returning an additional 6% dividends for the year. YTL was sold because of it’s poor dividends and AJI was added for it’s growth potential into India. AJI also returns a respectable 4% dividends for the year.
AL AQAR returned 7% Dividend for the year on top of a few percent of capital gains. It may not be an AXIS but still better than everything else in this environment.
HAIO, ANALABS and CENBOND was sold to realise their gains.
MEGB suffered a severe hammering due to lower student intake from a government policy change regarding student loans. However dividends remain strong at 6.8%. I still believe there’s a good future for MEGB as demand for nurses should go up as the world ages. I will keep a close eye on this stock as there are too many factors driving the stock downwards, including the CEO’s health.
XDL suffered through the year as continuous string of bad news came out of China. First there was the reverse take over scandal of Chinese companies on US stock exchange, and then rumours of economic hard landing eminent in China. Dividends are quite disappointing at 3%. Yes I know, better than FD but poor compared to REITS. Only piece of good news came only in 2012 when it was announced that another company is contemplating buying XDL. This stock is speculative all the way.
NOTION was added again for the rumours of interest from KKR private equity firm. The deal however fell through, perhaps due to management’s belief that it is worth more than the money offered. After the earthquake in Japan, it announced that Nikon wants to outsource their processes to NOTION, which is a positive development. However, late in the year it was hit by floods in Thailand and the stock again fell. Given the circumstances, it is still worth keeping the stock and see 2012’s results before deciding whether to keep it or not.
One of the themes of 2011 is the amount of mergers and acquisitions happening, like MAMEE, PLUS. Some of the mutual funds are doing really well because of it, and it rather makes my portfolio look embarassing, despite the overall KLCI barely moving. This M&A theme is moving well into 2012 with PROTON and KFC. However, I might not play on this theme as market insiders will outplay any retail investors.
REITS however look promising and the limited capital gains is keeping investors on the sidelines despite the good dividends. If the situation in Europe persists, it might be worth investing in more REITS as I wait it out. If the situation changes only I will change to cash and start buying more beaten down stocks.
I have written this a year ago to a friend and since I’m planning to write something for 2011, thought I’ll dig up this one and post it. Unfortunately the excel values have been blanked out to protect myself. I am however posting the percentages for everyone’s perusal:
I have attached here my portfolio, share my rationale for my purchases and perhaps thoughts for the immediate future.
Public Bank has been doing well as the back bone of my portfolio, forms about 50% of total equities and is returning ~65%. Not even rumours of Teh Hong Peow’s health can drag this stock down.
Hai-o is doing well as a growth stock for the moment, returning 78% although the growth seems to have stagnated for a year.
YTL is a blue chip that is holding its own, but the dividends are not growing as much as I like.
CENBOND and ANALABS are small caps that according to the Stock Market Performance Guide quite reliable dividends generators. Growth is moderate.
Al Aqar Reits was purchased towards mid of last year as I felt the Malaysian stocks are getting expansive in their evaluation. It is also defensive in nature due to their dividends policy. My hope is that it will have capital gains like Axis Reits.
XDL is a china stock which has an ok dividends but the market is shunning it like crazy. Still too early to judge whether there will be capital growth, it is one of my more speculative investments.
MEGB is a play on Education stock, but it is still speculative in nature when compared to SEGI or HELP.
The next day sees us taking a bus from Yunomine Onsen to the start of our trail at Ukegawa.
It’s easy, just pull a ticket stub when you enter through the back door.
When you leave, just pay the amount shown matching your ticket stub number.
Start of trail
There are some old teahouse remains… since teahouses were constructed using wood, there aren’t any traces left except for flat clearings on the side of the hill.
This part of Kumano Kodo, called the Kogumotori-goe and the Ogumotori-goe aren’t as well travelled as the route to Hongu.
Hence route is less well maintained, but still serviceable.
There are some nice views of the surrounding mountains.
There are some “poem monuments” about but, we can’t read japanese.
There were some strange (to us) looking trees/plants too.
The hike from Ukegawa to Koguchi is relatively short, so we reached our accommodation early in the afternoon. A note of warning though, there aren’t any restaurants here and we had to get some bread and pears for lunch at a shop.
Koguchi Shizen-no-Le is an accommodation converted from a school house and is charming in its own right.
The long corridor really invokes the classroom feel.
Still, food’s good. Dinner’s charming as well as we got to eat in a school canteen. The novelty of it!
The next day saw us walking from Koguchi to Nachi and the first bad omen was this sign informing us of a landslide and a detour to the first landmark, Waroda Rock.
It rained on and off that day and we were constantly in our raincoats. This route had more moss covering than previous trails and the going is slippery on the rocky stairs.
There’s a part of the trail that’s quite tough as it ascends continuously for 2 hours. However it should be no problem to hikers who’d done mountains.
This part of the trail is dark and misty, not sure it’s a characteristic of being nearer to the ocean or that typhoon Talas was approaching. Yes, we did hike 2 days before typhoon Talas was projected to hit our area! Talk about timing.
Lots of slippery moss covered rocks. The mist makes everything looks so eerie and mystical… We faced strong winds and light rain for the rest of the day.
At last we reach Kumano Nachi Taisha. Of the 3 Kumano Sanzan (3 shrines), we just missed out on the Kumano Hatayama Taisha due to tight schedule.
We also visited Nachi-no-Otaki falls, highest waterfall in Japan. Just amazing.
To ease our travel aches, we stayed at the Hotel Nakanoshima. Nope, not a Ryokan, but a full blown hotel, which in our opinion was the best accommodation ever! It’s located at an island in the bay of Kii-Katsuura, ocean facing views, open air onsen, and finally, our very own private bathrooms. A real luxury in Japan where public baths are common.
Food is delicious.
And Kumano Beef… which we thinks is the local “Kobe beef”. Melts like butter in our mouths.
The hotel is super new, which apparently is different from the one written in the Lonely Planet Guide. Thank goodness because the review for that hotel wasn’t good. So anyone interested should look up the name of this hotel instead.
Hey, an Haagen-Daaz ice-cream vending machine in the hotel, which gives some idea as to the Hotel’s classiness.
There’s an outdoor onsen footbath as well, will the wonders never cease?
Great views of rock formations off the island of Hotel Nakanoshima.
The breakfast dining area. Classy.
Kii-Katsuura harbour. Idyllic. The next day we had to leave for Kyoto but it was lucky that we did cause the next day saw high waves battering the Wakayama prefecture, disrupting train services. We could have been trapped by Typhoon Talas if we stayed longer!
And for those who’d watched the cove, we passed the town!
We had a bit of a delay when touching down at the Floating Kansai International Airport, which meant the well laid plan done by our agent (http://www.insidejapantours.com/) suffered a hiccup. The Japanese and their buses and trains really are punctual to the dot but unfortunately China Eastern Airlines did not cooperate. My guess is that it will be the last time wifey book them for flights.
LUCKILY, the tourist counter at Kansai Airport helped us to call the owner of our first Ryokan (guest house) that we were staying at to arrange to pick us up from another bus stop or else we would have been really stranded. It was also the last time that we have a good English conversation with a Japanese as most of them aren’t any good at it.
However, what they lack in English, they made up for it in hospitality.
The owner of Ryokan Tsukinoya at Chikatsuyu were our saviour as he graciously pick us up from a bus stop 10 minutes away late at night, from the LAST bus. Charming little place.
day time view of Chikatsuyu, the quiet little place we were staying at.
the corridors of Ryokan Tsukinoya
The owners fed us like kings and queens, although I was told that it was a typical Japanese full course meal. I told my wife I was 120% full and felt bad about not finishing the gohan (rice).
The owner flitted in and out of the dining room, enquiring about our plans and gave some advice on the hiking ahead. We were talking like Chicken to Duck but thankfully the Japanese Phrasebook (http://www.amazon.co.uk/Japan-Original-Point-Speak-Book/dp/4795818436) we borrowed helped us some in the communication. The owner’s wife also came in at one point and gave us some paper to write our prayers and wishes for her to hang on a tree on the next festival. Really warm and caring couple, until one point me and my wife felt like we were their adopted children.
Room’s typical Japanese and there’s aircond for the warm season.
The next day saw the owner taking us on a car trip to the beginning of the hiking trail which was totally generous and sporting of him! It wasn’t in his need to do so but he did it anyway, making sure we visit the Gyuba-doji statue.
Nonaka-no-Shimizu spring. I think it was a traditional holy water ablution place but we didn’t quite understood what the Ryokan owner wanted us to do from his frantic gestures and pointing. 
Tsugizakura-oji. With it’s impressive Torii gate and hige trees, truly a magical place.
And apparently a tree grafted onto another tree here. Glad the owner took us to see these places before he drop us off at Kobiro-Oji to start walking.
Right the trail proper, there are markers every 500m to show our progress, and also to convince us we are still on the trail. We did not start from the actual start which apparently goes all the way back to Takijiri-Oji.
Proper direction and signage means zero chance of getting lost. Furthermore, we came prepared with printed out route maps, full colour (get it here: http://www.tb-kumano.jp/en/kumano-kodo/nakahechi.html)
All interesting stops came with information signs with English translations.
For those hardcore hikers, there are various “stamps” located along the route which you can mark on your paper to show that you have passed the spot!
The connifer forest of Japan differs from our Malaysian tropical rainforest, trees are tall and straight. And the branches some how point in a single direction.
There are small shrines along the route, which really reminds us that this IS a pilgrimmage route!
Some statues are just on the ground.
Others are wrapped carefully because apparently, Kamis need warmth too!
A fellow lizard traveller…
Our traditional Bento lunch, it really is just rice balls, but flavoured.
Finally we reached… Kumano Hongu Taisha, the focus of the pilgrimmage trail we were on. Apparently Kumano Kodo was named a World Heritage Area partly because the Kumano Gods were historically tolerant of all genders and faiths!
Our present to ourselves for completing day 1 hike: Macha Ice-Cream! Tasty.
Our lodging for the night: Ryokan Azumaya, which according to our Ryokan Tsukinoya owner is:”number one!”
Number one in Yunomine Onsen area, that is. One of the older hot spring places.
Room’s good
Food’s good. And there’s all sort of Onsen specials: Onsen egg, Onsen tea, Onsen rice, etc.
And no kidding, eggs being boiled in public.
There’s a World Heritage wooden bathhouse here but… we’ll just bath in the Ryokan’s open air hot spring pool, thank you. We aren’t Hot Spring enthusiast.
We spend the next day exploring Hongu and an interesting tidbit: Kumano Kodo is like the Rising sun Pilgrimmage trail and there is a “Setting sun” Pilgrimmage trail in Spain called: The St. James Way.
I think it’s about 800 kilometres long so don’t think we’ll be attempting it…
end of Part one.
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